bayesRatings

Rays at Brewers

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TB 3 – MIL 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB100000101371
MIL000002000260
Team box
TB·MIL
7
hits
6
2
home runs
1
2
walks
2
14
strikeouts
7
132
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL2-4112
Yandy DiazTB2-4111
Jonny DeLucaTB1-3211
Nick FortesTB1-4001
Junior CamineroTB2-4000
Jake BauersMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB6.06203
Garrett Cleavinger (W)TB1.00022
Kevin Kelly (S)TB0.10000
Kyle HarrisonMIL5.04118
Trevor Megill (L)MIL1.01111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · TB 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
8.6
RaysThe matchupBrewers
+146Our fair odds−146
3.7Expected runs4.9
−0.00Power rating+0.29
7.7Runs / game9.7
7.3Allowed / game3.3
13.7Hits / game11.7
0.33Home runs / game1.33
4.3Walks drawn / game7.3
1−2Season record3−0
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIL chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+14641%+13442.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14659%−16862.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.2
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more46%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more35%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 11 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIL
Mar 29 at STL
last game
Mar 29 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TB·MIL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
7.7
runs / game
9.7
7.3
runs allowed / game
3.3
1−2
season record
3−0
0−0
home record
3−0
1−2
away record
0−0
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
4−6
13.7
hits / game
11.7
0.33
home runs / game
1.33
4.3
walks drawn / game
7.3
6.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
5.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
14.3
1.33
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

TB · MIL · 5 days
Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at MILMIL 8 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at MILTB 1 − 0
May 21, 2023at TBMIL 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at TBTB 8 − 4
May 19, 2023at TBTB 1 − 0
Aug 10, 2022at MILMIL 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at BAL6 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025at BAL0 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025vs BOS7 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at CHC0 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025at CHC3 − 4L