bayesRatings

Brewers at Royals

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIL 2 – KC 8
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL002000000251
KC020006008101
Team box
MIL·KC
5
hits
10
0
home runs
1
3
walks
7
12
strikeouts
9
160
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Maikel GarciaKC3-5101
Carter JensenKC2-3102
Salvador PerezKC1-2211
Jonathan IndiaKC2-4200
Kyle IsbelKC1-3101
Isaac CollinsKC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan HendersonMIL2.03213
Brandon Sproat (L)MIL3.24434
Seth LugoKC5.04227
Nick Mears (W)KC1.00000
Eli Morgan (S)KC3.01015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
MIL +6
123456789
largest lead: KC 6 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, KC 46% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 3.7 KC
Expected total
8.2
BrewersThe matchupRoyals
−117Our fair odds+117
4.5Expected runs3.7
+0.29Power rating+0.03
7.5Runs / game3.8
2.8Allowed / game4.7
9.5Hits / game7.7
1.33Home runs / game1.00
5.2Walks drawn / game3.0
5−1Season record3−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11754%————
KCKansas City Royals+11746%————
SpreadMIL by 0.8
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.8our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.8 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 18%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byKC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 17 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·KC
Apr 4 at KC
last game
Apr 4 vs MIL
same day
days of rest
same day
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIL·KC
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
7.5
runs / game
3.8
2.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
5−1
season record
3−3
5−1
home record
2−1
0−0
away record
1−2
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
9.5
hits / game
7.7
1.33
home runs / game
1.00
5.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
12.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.00
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

MIL · KC · 10 days
Milwaukee BrewersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Apr 2, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at MILKC 11 − 1
May 8, 2024at KCKC 6 − 4
May 7, 2024at KCMIL 6 − 5
May 6, 2024at KCKC 3 − 2
May 14, 2023at MILMIL 9 − 6
May 13, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 12, 2023at MILMIL 5 − 1
Jul 21, 2021at MILKC 6 − 3

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025at ATH3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at LAA9 − 4W