bayesRatings

Rays at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 12:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TB 2 – MIL 8
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB002000000252
MIL00200006890
Team box
TB·MIL
5
hits
9
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
11
strikeouts
10
154
pitches thrown
137
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL1-2212
Yandy DiazTB1-4112
Christian YelichMIL2-4102
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4102
William ContrerasMIL2-4100
David HamiltonMIL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew RasmussenTB5.03118
Griffin Jax (L)TB0.03310
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL6.04227
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 6 · TB 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 3.6 TB
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupBrewers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.6Expected runs4.9
−0.00Power rating+0.28
5.6Runs / game7.4
6.0Allowed / game3.0
11.0Hits / game9.6
1.00Home runs / game1.40
3.4Walks drawn / game5.8
2−3Season record4−1
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIL chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+14441%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14459%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, 7 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIL
Mar 31 at MIL
last game
Mar 31 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
TB·MIL
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
5.6
runs / game
7.4
6.0
runs allowed / game
3.0
2−3
season record
4−1
0−0
home record
4−1
2−3
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
11.0
hits / game
9.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.40
3.4
walks drawn / game
5.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
5.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
13.0
1.20
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

TB · MIL · 7 days
Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Mar 31at MILMIL 6 − 2
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at MILMIL 8 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at MILTB 1 − 0
May 21, 2023at TBMIL 6 − 4
May 20, 2023at TBTB 8 − 4

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at BAL6 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W