bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Apr 2 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 5 – KC 1
← MLB / Apr 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN010000013581
KC000000010171
Team box
MIN·KC
8
hits
7
3
home runs
0
3
walks
2
12
strikeouts
6
143
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kody ClemensMIN2-3211
Josh BellMIN1-3211
Matt WallnerMIN1-4111
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-3001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4000
Salvador PerezKC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (W)MIN6.05013
Cole Ragans (L)KC6.04018

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · MIN 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, KC 57% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
KC by 0.8
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 3.7 MIN
Expected total
8.2
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
+135Our fair odds−135
3.7Expected runs4.5
−0.16Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.4
5.4Allowed / game4.6
6.8Hits / game7.8
0.80Home runs / game1.20
5.0Walks drawn / game3.2
1−4Season record3−2
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13543%+12943.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−13557%−16161.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.8
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.8 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more42%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 22 Kstarted
KCCole Ragans SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Apr 1 at KC
last game
Apr 1 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIN·KC
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.4
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
1−4
season record
3−2
0−0
home record
2−0
1−4
away record
1−2
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
6.8
hits / game
7.8
0.80
home runs / game
1.20
5.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.40
errors / game
0.20

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 8 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Apr 1at KCKC 13 − 9
Mar 30at KCKC 3 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at MINKC 2 − 0
Aug 8, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 4
May 25, 2025at MINKC 2 − 1
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L
Sep 25, 2025at TEX4 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025at TEX2 − 4L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025at ATH3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at LAA9 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025at LAA2 − 3L