bayesRatings

Padres at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final SD 3 – BOS 2
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD011000001370
BOS010000010281
Team box
SD·BOS
7
hits
8
0
home runs
0
5
walks
1
9
strikeouts
8
133
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel AndujarSD3-5100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-3100
Roman AnthonyBOS2-4000
Ramon LaureanoSD1-4001
Freddy FerminSD1-3101
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy VasquezSD6.06113
Adrian Morejon (W)SD1.02102
Mason Miller (S)SD1.00003
Connelly EarlyBOS4.03244
Aroldis Chapman (L)BOS1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · SD 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, BOS 52% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.1 SD
Expected total
8.3
PadresThe matchupRed Sox
+111Our fair odds−111
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating+0.08
3.0Runs / game3.1
4.4Allowed / game4.9
6.0Hits / game7.3
0.43Home runs / game1.14
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
2−5Season record2−5
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+11148%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11152%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·BOS
Apr 3 at BOS
last game
Apr 3 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
SD·BOS
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.0
runs / game
3.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
2−5
season record
2−5
2−4
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−5
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
3−7
6.0
hits / game
7.3
0.43
home runs / game
1.14
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
10.7
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.43
errors / game
0.86

Rating Trend

SD · BOS · 10 days
San Diego PadresBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Apr 3at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at SDSD 6 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at SDBOS 10 − 2
Jun 30, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 29, 2024at BOSSD 11 − 1
Jun 28, 2024at BOSSD 9 − 2
May 21, 2023at SDSD 7 − 0
May 20, 2023at SDBOS 4 − 2
May 19, 2023at SDBOS 6 − 1

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 3at BOS2 − 5L
Apr 1vs SF7 − 1W
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at CHC3 − 0W
Sep 30, 2025at CHC1 − 3L

BOS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L
Oct 1, 2025at NYY3 − 4L
Sep 30, 2025at NYY3 − 1W