bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 1 – SD 7
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000000100142
SD10001104790
Team box
SF·SD
4
hits
9
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
14
strikeouts
7
132
pitches thrown
146
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ramon LaureanoSD2-4212
Gavin SheetsSD2-3201
Luis ArraezSF3-4100
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-4001
Harrison BaderSF1-3001
Manny MachadoSD1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian Houser (L)SF5.16114
Nick Pivetta (W)SD5.01028
Mason Miller (S)SD1.11003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 6 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, SD 54% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.7
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+118Our fair odds−118
3.6Expected runs4.0
−0.01Power rating+0.08
2.6Runs / game2.4
3.6Allowed / game5.0
7.0Hits / game5.8
0.60Home runs / game0.40
2.4Walks drawn / game3.2
2−3Season record1−4
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11846%+12943.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11854%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.4our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more38%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted
SDNick Pivetta SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Mar 31 at SD
last game
Mar 31 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
SF·SD
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
2.6
runs / game
2.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
2−3
season record
1−4
0−3
home record
1−4
2−0
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.0
hits / game
5.8
0.60
home runs / game
0.40
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.20
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 7 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 6−4
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at SFSD 11 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at SFSD 5 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at SFSD 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 31at SD9 − 3W
Mar 30at SD3 − 2W
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 31vs SF3 − 9L
Mar 30vs SF2 − 3L
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at CHC3 − 0W
Sep 30, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs ARI12 − 4W
Sep 27, 2025vs ARI5 − 1W