bayesRatings

Red Sox at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final BOS 2 – HOU 9
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000010010242
HOU102032109110
Team box
BOS·HOU
4
hits
11
1
home runs
2
3
walks
5
13
strikeouts
6
145
pitches thrown
128
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU2-3212
Cam SmithHOU2-3111
Carlos CorreaHOU2-3202
Christian WalkerHOU2-4102
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-3111
Connor WongBOS1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brayan Bello (L)BOS4.28532
Hunter Brown (W)HOU6.01128
Cody Bolton (S)HOU3.03115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +8
BOS +8
123456789
largest lead: HOU 8 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 49%, HOU 51% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupAstros
+104Our fair odds−104
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating+0.06
2.8Runs / game6.0
4.2Allowed / game5.2
7.8Hits / game8.8
0.75Home runs / game1.00
4.0Walks drawn / game5.0
1−3Season record3−2
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · HOU chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+10449%+11945.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10451%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byHOU wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 6 Kstarted
HOUHunter Brown SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·HOU
Mar 30 at HOU
last game
Mar 30 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
BOS·HOU
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
2.8
runs / game
6.0
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.2
1−3
season record
3−2
0−0
home record
3−2
1−3
away record
0−0
L3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.8
0.75
home runs / game
1.00
4.0
walks drawn / game
5.0
10.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.6
0.50
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

BOS · HOU · 6 days
Boston Red SoxHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Mar 30at HOUHOU 8 − 1
Aug 13, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at HOUBOS 14 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 6
Aug 3, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Aug 2, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at HOUBOS 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2024at HOUBOS 6 − 5
Aug 19, 2024at HOUHOU 5 − 4

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L
Oct 1, 2025at NYY3 − 4L
Sep 30, 2025at NYY3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 27, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 26, 2025vs DET4 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 30vs BOS8 − 1W
Mar 29vs LAA9 − 7W
Mar 28vs LAA11 − 9W
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at LAA3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at ATH11 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at ATH0 − 6L