bayesRatings

Brewers at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIL 8 – KC 5
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL3001002028100
KC002000300590
Team box
MIL·KC
10
hits
9
1
home runs
1
8
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
151
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Maikel GarciaKC2-5113
Gary SanchezMIL1-3112
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-5002
William ContrerasMIL2-3102
Christian YelichMIL2-5201
Jake BauersMIL1-1101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL5.13226
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01000
Kris Bubic (L)KC5.04438

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
MIL +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · MIL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, KC 46% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
MIL by 0.7
Expected score
MIL 4.4 – 3.7 KC
Expected total
8.2
BrewersThe matchupRoyals
−117Our fair odds+117
4.4Expected runs3.7
+0.29Power rating+0.04
6.5Runs / game4.1
3.4Allowed / game4.4
9.0Hits / game8.0
1.12Home runs / game0.88
5.0Walks drawn / game3.9
6−2Season record4−4
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · KC chance
Our model fair53.8%46.2%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11754%+10149.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11746%−12154.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.7
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.7our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.7 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byKC wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more42%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 19 Kstarted
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·KC
Apr 4 at KC
last game
Apr 4 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
MIL·KC
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
6.5
runs / game
4.1
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
6−2
season record
4−4
5−1
home record
3−2
1−1
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
9.0
hits / game
8.0
1.12
home runs / game
0.88
5.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
11.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.12
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

MIL · KC · 11 days
Milwaukee BrewersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 4−6
Apr 4at KCKC 8 − 2
Apr 4at KCMIL 5 − 2
Apr 2, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
Apr 1, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 0
Mar 31, 2025at MILKC 11 − 1
May 8, 2024at KCKC 6 − 4
May 7, 2024at KCMIL 6 − 5
May 6, 2024at KCKC 3 − 2
May 14, 2023at MILMIL 9 − 6
May 13, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 3

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 4vs MIL8 − 2W
Apr 4vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 2vs MIN1 − 5L
Apr 1vs MIN13 − 9W
Mar 30vs MIN3 − 1W
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W