bayesRatings

Brewers at Red Sox

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIL 8 – BOS 6
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0004100218110
BOS1022000016112
Team box
MIL·BOS
11
hits
11
0
home runs
1
8
walks
3
11
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
191
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS3-3112
Christian YelichMIL3-4101
Garrett MitchellMIL2-5002
Trevor StoryBOS1-4002
Sal FrelickMIL2-4101
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon WoodruffMIL5.28524
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.11010
Angel Zerpa (S)MIL1.02100
Brayan BelloBOS3.15345
Garrett Whitlock (L)BOS1.01122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 3 · MIL 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, BOS 46% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
MIL by 0.7
Expected score
MIL 4.8 – 4.2 BOS
Expected total
9.0
BrewersThe matchupRed Sox
−116Our fair odds+116
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.30Power rating+0.06
6.7Runs / game3.3
3.6Allowed / game5.0
9.1Hits / game7.6
1.11Home runs / game0.89
5.3Walks drawn / game3.1
7−2Season record2−7
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11654%−12655.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11646%+10548.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.7
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.7 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byBOS wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more42%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 23 Kstarted
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BOS
Apr 5 at KC
last game
Apr 5 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
MIL·BOS
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
6.7
runs / game
3.3
3.6
runs allowed / game
5.0
7−2
season record
2−7
5−1
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
1−5
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
9.1
hits / game
7.6
1.11
home runs / game
0.89
5.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
11.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.11
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

MIL · BOS · 12 days
Milwaukee BrewersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
May 28, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
May 27, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 26, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
May 26, 2024at BOSBOS 2 − 1
May 25, 2024at BOSMIL 6 − 3
May 24, 2024at BOSMIL 7 − 2
Apr 23, 2023at MILBOS 12 − 5
Apr 22, 2023at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at MILBOS 5 − 3
Jul 31, 2022at BOSBOS 7 − 2

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L