bayesRatings

Cardinals at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final STL 6 – WSH 1
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL020010102680
WSH001000000140
Team box
STL·WSH
8
hits
4
1
home runs
0
7
walks
1
9
strikeouts
2
126
pitches thrown
189
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL3-4103
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4111
Yohel PozoSTL1-2002
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4001
James WoodWSH2-4000
Ivan HerreraSTL1-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (W)STL6.04101
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH3.05233

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
STL +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · STL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
STL by 0.7
Expected score
STL 5.7 – 5.0 WSH
Expected total
10.7
CardinalsThe matchupNationals
−111Our fair odds+111
5.7Expected runs5.0
−0.05Power rating−0.24
4.8Runs / game6.4
5.5Allowed / game6.5
7.5Hits / game9.9
1.09Home runs / game1.45
4.2Walks drawn / game3.9
6−5Season record4−7
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11152%−12655.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11148%+10149.7%———
SpreadSTL by 0.7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.7 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← STL wins byWSH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more43%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 12 Kstarted
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 11.93 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·WSH
Apr 7 at WSH
last game
Apr 7 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
STL·WSH
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.8
runs / game
6.4
5.5
runs allowed / game
6.5
6−5
season record
4−7
4−2
home record
1−4
2−3
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.5
hits / game
9.9
1.09
home runs / game
1.45
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
6.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.55
errors / game
1.09

Rating Trend

STL · WSH · 14 days
St. Louis CardinalsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 7at WSHSTL 7 − 6
Apr 6at WSHWSH 9 − 6
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2
May 9, 2025at WSHSTL 10 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at STLWSH 14 − 3

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L