bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 2 – PHI 3
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000001100281
PHI00111000371
Team box
WSH·PHI
8
hits
7
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
2
107
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Adolis GarciaPHI2-3111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3111
Daylen LileWSH3-4000
Bryce HarperPHI1-4001
Nasim NunezWSH2-4100
James WoodWSH1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
PJ PoulinWSH1.00001
Zack Littell (L)WSH5.06321
Andrew Painter (W)PHI5.14118
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 40%, PHI 60% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
PHI by 1.4
Expected score
PHI 5.5 – 4.1 WSH
Expected total
9.6
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+152Our fair odds−152
4.1Expected runs5.5
−0.20Power rating+0.14
7.8Runs / game3.5
4.8Allowed / game7.2
10.8Hits / game6.2
1.50Home runs / game0.75
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
3−1Season record1−3
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15240%+15938.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−15260%−19165.6%———
SpreadPHI by 1.4
WSHWashington Nationals+1.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.4 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more48%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more38%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHPJ Poulin RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Mar 30 at PHI
last game
Mar 30 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
7.8
runs / game
3.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
7.2
3−1
season record
1−3
0−0
home record
1−3
3−1
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
10.8
hits / game
6.2
1.50
home runs / game
0.75
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
1.50
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 6 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at WSHPHI 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 1, 2025at PHIWSH 4 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22, 2025at ATL5 − 11L

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L