bayesRatings

Dodgers at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final LAD 13 – WSH 6
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD00524010113160
WSH3010000206110
Team box
LAD·WSH
16
hits
11
5
home runs
1
5
walks
5
8
strikeouts
5
151
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-5114
CJ AbramsWSH2-5114
Kyle TuckerLAD3-6212
Andy PagesLAD3-4212
Mookie BettsLAD2-6212
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet Sheehan (W)LAD5.27432
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH4.1111114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +8
LAD +8
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · LAD 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, WSH 41% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
LAD by 1.8
Expected score
LAD 6.2 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
10.5
DodgersThe matchupNationals
−143Our fair odds+143
6.2Expected runs4.3
+0.25Power rating−0.21
3.8Runs / game6.3
2.8Allowed / game4.7
7.3Hits / game10.2
1.17Home runs / game1.17
2.8Walks drawn / game3.3
4−2Season record3−3
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · WSH chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshi74.4%29.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14359%−29074.4%———
WSHWashington Nationals+14341%+24029.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.8
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.8our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.8 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byWSH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more52%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more42%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·WSH
Apr 1 vs CLE
last game
Apr 1 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LAD·WSH
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
3.8
runs / game
6.3
2.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
4−2
season record
3−3
4−2
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
3−3
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.3
hits / game
10.2
1.17
home runs / game
1.17
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.17
errors / game
1.50

Rating Trend

LAD · WSH · 9 days
Los Angeles DodgersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Jun 22, 2025at LADLAD 13 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LADWSH 7 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 9, 2025at WSHLAD 6 − 5
Apr 8, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Apr 7, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at WSHLAD 2 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at WSHLAD 11 − 2
Apr 23, 2024at WSHLAD 4 − 1
Apr 17, 2024at LADWSH 2 − 0

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W