bayesRatings

Guardians at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CLE 1 – LAD 4
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000001120
LAD000101024100
Team box
CLE·LAD
2
hits
10
0
home runs
1
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
11
158
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD2-3211
Andy PagesLAD2-4002
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4001
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4001
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-3000
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE4.04124
Shohei Ohtani (W)LAD6.01036

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 43%, LAD 57% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupDodgers
+131Our fair odds−131
3.7Expected runs4.7
+0.07Power rating+0.26
3.4Runs / game4.5
4.8Allowed / game3.0
7.0Hits / game7.2
0.80Home runs / game1.25
2.4Walks drawn / game2.8
3−2Season record3−1
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAD chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+13143%+22930.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13157%−27673.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 18 Kstarted
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAD
Mar 30 at LAD
last game
Mar 30 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CLE·LAD
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
3.4
runs / game
4.5
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.0
3−2
season record
3−1
0−0
home record
3−1
3−2
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.0
hits / game
7.2
0.80
home runs / game
1.25
2.4
walks drawn / game
2.8
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
5.2
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.20
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CLE · LAD · 6 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Mar 30at LADCLE 4 − 2
May 28, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 27, 2025at CLELAD 9 − 5
May 26, 2025at CLELAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 0
Sep 7, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 6, 2024at LADCLE 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2023at CLELAD 9 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at CLELAD 6 − 1
Aug 22, 2023at CLECLE 8 − 3

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025vs TEX9 − 8W
Sep 27, 2025vs TEX3 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W
Oct 25, 2025at TOR5 − 1W