bayesRatings

Guardians at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 7:20 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final CLE 4 – LAD 1
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE002000020460
LAD000000001151
Team box
CLE·LAD
6
hits
5
2
home runs
1
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
12
126
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE1-3112
Gabriel AriasCLE1-3111
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4111
Andy PagesLAD3-3000
Bo NaylorCLE2-4000
Brayan RocchioCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.020310
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD6.04212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · CLE 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 43%, LAD 57% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupDodgers
+134Our fair odds−134
3.7Expected runs4.7
+0.06Power rating+0.27
3.0Runs / game4.4
4.7Allowed / game2.6
6.2Hits / game7.8
0.67Home runs / game1.20
2.8Walks drawn / game2.8
3−3Season record4−1
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi29.4%74.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+13443%+24029.4%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13457%−29074.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
CLECleveland Guardians+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 14 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 27 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·LAD
Mar 31 at LAD
last game
Mar 31 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
CLE·LAD
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
3.0
runs / game
4.4
4.7
runs allowed / game
2.6
3−3
season record
4−1
0−0
home record
4−1
3−3
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
6.2
hits / game
7.8
0.67
home runs / game
1.20
2.8
walks drawn / game
2.8
10.8
batter strikeouts / game
6.4
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.17
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CLE · LAD · 7 days
Cleveland GuardiansLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
Mar 31at LADLAD 4 − 1
Mar 30at LADCLE 4 − 2
May 28, 2025at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 27, 2025at CLELAD 9 − 5
May 26, 2025at CLELAD 7 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 0
Sep 7, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 2
Sep 6, 2024at LADCLE 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2023at CLELAD 9 − 3
Aug 23, 2023at CLELAD 6 − 1

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 31at LAD1 − 4L
Mar 30at LAD4 − 2W
Mar 29at SEA0 − 8L
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025vs TEX9 − 8W

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W