bayesRatings

Nationals at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 12:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final WSH 5 – PHI 6
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
WSH01000130005102
PHI10000011216120
Team box
WSH·PHI
10
hits
12
1
home runs
2
4
walks
5
11
strikeouts
4
162
pitches thrown
162
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
CJ AbramsWSH1-4113
J.T. RealmutoPHI2-3111
Justin CrawfordPHI3-5001
Bryce HarperPHI1-5111
Edmundo SosaPHI1-2002
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade CavalliWSH6.05123
Cole Henry (L)WSH0.13010
Cristopher SanchezPHI5.14147
Jhoan Duran (W)PHI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +4
WSH +4
12345678910
largest lead: PHI 1 · WSH 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, PHI 61% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
PHI by 1.5
Expected score
PHI 5.5 – 4.0 WSH
Expected total
9.4
NationalsThe matchupPhillies
+154Our fair odds−154
4.0Expected runs5.5
−0.20Power rating+0.15
6.6Runs / game3.4
4.4Allowed / game6.2
10.2Hits / game6.4
1.20Home runs / game1.00
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
3−2Season record2−3
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair39.3%60.7%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15439%+22930.4%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−15461%−27673.4%———
SpreadPHI by 1.5
WSHWashington Nationals+1.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more49%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more39%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Mar 31 at PHI
last game
Mar 31 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
WSH·PHI
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
6.6
runs / game
3.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
6.2
3−2
season record
2−3
0−0
home record
2−3
3−2
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
10.2
hits / game
6.4
1.20
home runs / game
1.00
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.4
1.40
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 7 days
Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Mar 31at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Mar 30at PHIWSH 13 − 2
Aug 24, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 23, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Aug 22, 2025at PHIWSH 5 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at WSHPHI 11 − 9
Aug 16, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Aug 15, 2025at WSHPHI 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 1, 2025at PHIWSH 4 − 2

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 31vs WSH3 − 2W
Mar 30vs WSH2 − 13L
Mar 29vs TEX3 − 8L
Mar 28vs TEX4 − 5L
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W