bayesRatings

Cardinals at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final STL 6 – DET 11
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL001050000661
DET3013101211120
Team box
STL·DET
6
hits
12
1
home runs
4
6
walks
6
9
strikeouts
8
169
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4115
Zach McKinstryDET2-4113
Matt VierlingDET1-2113
Kerry CarpenterDET1-4113
Gleyber TorresDET2-4211
Parker MeadowsDET2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin May (L)STL3.17724
Jack FlahertyDET4.03546
Brant Hurter (W)DET1.00010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: DET 6 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 45%, DET 55% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
DET by 0.8
Expected score
DET 4.7 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupTigers
+122Our fair odds−122
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.05Power rating+0.06
4.1Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game3.4
7.4Hits / game7.6
1.00Home runs / game0.29
2.9Walks drawn / game3.4
4−3Season record3−4
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12245%+14640.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12255%−17563.6%———
SpreadDET by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 11.20 ERA, 11 Kstarted
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·DET
Apr 3 at DET
last game
Apr 3 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
STL·DET
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.1
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.4
4−3
season record
3−4
4−2
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.4
hits / game
7.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.29
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
5.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.57
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

STL · DET · 10 days
St. Louis CardinalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Apr 3at DETDET 4 − 0
May 21, 2025at STLDET 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at STLDET 5 − 4
May 19, 2025at STLSTL 11 − 4
May 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at DETDET 11 − 6
Apr 30, 2024at DETSTL 2 − 1
May 7, 2023at STLSTL 12 − 6
May 6, 2023at STLDET 6 − 5
May 5, 2023at STLDET 5 − 4

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L