bayesRatings

Tigers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final DET 0 – ARI 1
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000000071
ARI10000000160
Team box
DET·ARI
7
hits
6
0
home runs
1
0
walks
2
5
strikeouts
3
107
pitches thrown
133
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI2-3111
Kevin McGonigleDET2-4000
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3000
Ildemaro VargasARI1-3000
Tim TawaARI1-3000
Jordan LawlarARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (L)DET7.06103
Zac Gallen (W)ARI6.04002
Jonathan Loaisiga (S)ARI1.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 5.0 – 5.0 DET
Expected total
10.0
TigersThe matchupDiamondbacks
+106Our fair odds−106
5.0Expected runs5.0
+0.05Power rating+0.02
4.8Runs / game4.8
4.6Allowed / game5.4
7.2Hits / game7.6
0.20Home runs / game1.20
4.4Walks drawn / game3.0
2−3Season record2−3
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10649%−15460.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10651%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit TigersPKour margin————
ARIArizona DiamondbacksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 28 Kstarted
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.04 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ARI
Mar 31 at ARI
last game
Mar 31 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DET·ARI
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.4
2−3
season record
2−3
0−0
home record
2−0
2−3
away record
0−3
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.2
hits / game
7.6
0.20
home runs / game
1.20
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.0
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
1.00
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

DET · ARI · 7 days
Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Mar 31at ARIARI 7 − 5
Mar 30at ARIARI 9 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at DETDET 7 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at DETDET 12 − 2
Jul 28, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
May 19, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 4
May 18, 2024at ARIDET 8 − 3
May 17, 2024at ARIDET 13 − 0
Jun 11, 2023at DETARI 7 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at DETARI 5 − 0

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L
Oct 5, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 4, 2025at SEA3 − 2W

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Mar 31vs DET7 − 5W
Mar 30vs DET9 − 6W
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L