bayesRatings

Mets at Cardinals

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 12:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final NYM 1 – STL 2
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
NYM00000100000150
STL00000100001252
Team box
NYM·STL
5
hits
5
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
6
strikeouts
13
166
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Juan SotoNYM1-5111
Nolan GormanSTL1-3001
Masyn WinnSTL1-4001
Jorge PolancoNYM1-4000
Bo BichetteNYM1-5000
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy PeraltaNYM5.13127
Tobias Myers (L)NYM1.21011
Matthew LiberatoreSTL6.03112
Gordon Graceffo (W)STL0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
NYM +3
1234567891011
largest lead: STL 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
NYM by 0.7
Expected score
NYM 4.9 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.2
MetsThe matchupCardinals
−102Our fair odds+102
4.9Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating−0.05
4.4Runs / game5.4
3.6Allowed / game5.4
7.8Hits / game8.4
0.60Home runs / game1.40
5.0Walks drawn / game2.6
3−2Season record3−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10251%−17563.6%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10249%+14640.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySTL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 17 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·STL
Mar 31 at STL
last game
Mar 31 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NYM·STL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.4
runs / game
5.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
5.4
3−2
season record
3−2
2−1
home record
3−2
1−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.4
0.60
home runs / game
1.40
5.0
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
10.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
5.6
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

NYM · STL · 7 days
New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 3−7
Mar 31at STLSTL 3 − 0
Mar 30at STLNYM 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 2, 2025at STLNYM 9 − 3
Apr 20, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Apr 17, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Aug 5, 2024at STLNYM 6 − 0

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 31at STL0 − 3L
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at SF9 − 8W