bayesRatings

Mets at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final NYM 0 – STL 3
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000000030
STL00200010360
Team box
NYM·STL
3
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
4
5
strikeouts
11
121
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ramon UriasSTL1-3111
Ivan HerreraSTL1-2002
Juan SotoNYM2-4000
Victor Scott IISTL2-3100
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4100
Jared YoungNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kodai Senga (L)NYM6.04239
Andre Pallante (W)STL5.03033
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 51%, STL 49% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
NYM by 0.8
Expected score
NYM 5.1 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.3
MetsThe matchupCardinals
−104Our fair odds+104
5.1Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.06
5.5Runs / game6.0
3.8Allowed / game6.8
9.0Hits / game9.0
0.75Home runs / game1.50
5.2Walks drawn / game2.2
3−1Season record2−2
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets−10451%−14859.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10449%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYM by 0.8
NYMNew York Mets−0.8our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.8 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins bySTL wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more44%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·STL
Mar 30 at STL
last game
Mar 30 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NYM·STL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.5
runs / game
6.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
6.8
3−1
season record
2−2
2−1
home record
2−2
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
9.0
hits / game
9.0
0.75
home runs / game
1.50
5.2
walks drawn / game
2.2
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
6.2
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
5.8
0.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYM · STL · 6 days
New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 2−8
Mar 30at STLNYM 4 − 2
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
May 2, 2025at STLNYM 9 − 3
Apr 20, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 4
Apr 19, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 0
Apr 18, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 4
Apr 17, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 1
Aug 5, 2024at STLNYM 6 − 0
May 7, 2024at STLNYM 7 − 5

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 30at STL4 − 2W
Mar 29vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 28vs PIT4 − 2W
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L
Sep 23, 2025at CHC9 − 7W

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at SF9 − 8W
Sep 22, 2025at SF6 − 5W