bayesRatings

Cardinals at Tigers

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final STL 0 – DET 4
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000000000050
DET000211004101
Team box
STL·DET
5
hits
10
0
home runs
1
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
133
pitches thrown
131
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET1-4112
Javier BaezDET2-3001
Riley GreeneDET2-4101
Kerry CarpenterDET2-3000
Gleyber TorresDET1-3100
Zach McKinstryDET1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (L)STL4.27304
Framber Valdez (W)DET6.03025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 4 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, DET 54% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.6 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.6
CardinalsThe matchupTigers
+119Our fair odds−119
3.9Expected runs4.6
−0.03Power rating+0.05
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.7Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game7.2
1.17Home runs / game0.17
2.8Walks drawn / game3.7
4−2Season record2−4
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · DET chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi40.7%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11946%+14640.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11954%−18364.6%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·DET
Apr 1 vs NYM
last game
Apr 1 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
STL·DET
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
4−2
season record
2−4
4−2
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
2−4
W2
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.2
1.17
home runs / game
0.17
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
5.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.67
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

STL · DET · 9 days
St. Louis CardinalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
May 21, 2025at STLDET 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at STLDET 5 − 4
May 19, 2025at STLSTL 11 − 4
May 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at DETDET 11 − 6
Apr 30, 2024at DETSTL 2 − 1
May 7, 2023at STLSTL 12 − 6
May 6, 2023at STLDET 6 − 5
May 5, 2023at STLDET 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2021at STLSTL 3 − 2

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L
Oct 5, 2025at SEA2 − 3L