bayesRatings

Cardinals at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final STL 7 – WSH 6
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
STL2000001202791
WSH10102100016102
Team box
STL·WSH
9
hits
10
2
home runs
2
10
walks
4
8
strikeouts
13
163
pitches thrown
200
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Curtis MeadWSH3-4112
Jordan WalkerSTL1-5112
Nathan ChurchSTL1-2112
James WoodWSH2-4311
Nolan GormanSTL3-4001
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew LiberatoreSTL5.09426
George Soriano (W)STL2.00003
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00002
Cade CavalliWSH4.24143
Cole Henry (L)WSH1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
STL +3
12345678910
largest lead: WSH 3 · STL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
STL by 0.7
Expected score
STL 5.6 – 5.0 WSH
Expected total
10.6
CardinalsThe matchupNationals
−109Our fair odds+109
5.6Expected runs5.0
−0.06Power rating−0.23
4.6Runs / game6.4
5.5Allowed / game6.5
7.3Hits / game9.9
1.00Home runs / game1.40
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
5−5Season record4−6
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.1%47.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10952%−10350.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10948%−11653.7%———
SpreadSTL by 0.7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.6
Over10.6our total————
Under10.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.7 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← STL wins byWSH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more43%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.546%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·WSH
Apr 6 at WSH
last game
Apr 6 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
STL·WSH
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
4.6
runs / game
6.4
5.5
runs allowed / game
6.5
5−5
season record
4−6
4−2
home record
1−3
1−3
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.3
hits / game
9.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.40
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
5.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.50
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

STL · WSH · 13 days
St. Louis CardinalsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Apr 6at WSHWSH 9 − 6
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2
May 9, 2025at WSHSTL 10 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at STLWSH 14 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at STLWSH 10 − 8

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W