bayesRatings

Cardinals at Tigers

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 6:20 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final STL 5 – DET 3
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000040010560
DET002001000361
Team box
STL·DET
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
7
7
strikeouts
8
171
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kerry CarpenterDET1-2112
Ivan HerreraSTL1-3002
Parker MeadowsDET2-4000
Nolan GormanSTL1-3101
Pedro PagesSTL1-4101
Victor Scott IISTL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Leahy (W)STL5.05234
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001
Keider Montero (L)DET4.13213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: DET 2 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 44%, DET 56% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
DET by 0.8
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.8
CardinalsThe matchupTigers
+125Our fair odds−125
4.0Expected runs4.8
−0.06Power rating+0.07
4.4Runs / game4.9
5.4Allowed / game3.8
7.2Hits / game8.1
1.00Home runs / game0.75
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
4−4Season record4−4
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12544%+11945.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−12556%−14258.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 2 starts: 8.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·DET
Apr 4 at DET
last game
Apr 4 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
STL·DET
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.9
5.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
4−4
season record
4−4
4−2
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
2−4
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.2
hits / game
8.1
1.00
home runs / game
0.75
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
5.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.62
errors / game
0.88

Rating Trend

STL · DET · 11 days
St. Louis CardinalsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Apr 4at DETDET 11 − 6
Apr 3at DETDET 4 − 0
May 21, 2025at STLDET 5 − 1
May 20, 2025at STLDET 5 − 4
May 19, 2025at STLSTL 11 − 4
May 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at DETDET 11 − 6
Apr 30, 2024at DETSTL 2 − 1
May 7, 2023at STLSTL 12 − 6
May 6, 2023at STLDET 6 − 5

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W