bayesRatings

Dodgers at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final LAD 10 – WSH 5
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD23103010010160
WSH001100021581
Team box
LAD·WSH
16
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
8
strikeouts
11
157
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD3-5213
Freddie FreemanLAD2-5004
CJ AbramsWSH1-2212
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH3-4101
Kyle TuckerLAD2-3201
Will SmithLAD3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Glasnow (W)LAD6.04229
Jake Irvin (L)WSH4.08624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +8
LAD +8
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · LAD 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, WSH 40% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
LAD by 2.0
Expected score
LAD 6.3 – 4.3 WSH
Expected total
10.7
DodgersThe matchupNationals
−148Our fair odds+148
6.3Expected runs4.3
+0.27Power rating−0.22
5.1Runs / game6.3
3.3Allowed / game5.9
8.6Hits / game10.3
1.71Home runs / game1.14
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
5−2Season record3−4
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · WSH chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshi75.3%29.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14860%−30675.3%———
WSHWashington Nationals+14840%+24029.4%———
SpreadLAD by 2.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byWSH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more53%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more43%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 19 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·WSH
Apr 3 at WSH
last game
Apr 3 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
LAD·WSH
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
5.1
runs / game
6.3
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.9
5−2
season record
3−4
4−2
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
10.3
1.71
home runs / game
1.14
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.14
errors / game
1.29

Rating Trend

LAD · WSH · 10 days
Los Angeles DodgersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 3at WSHLAD 13 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at LADLAD 13 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LADWSH 7 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 9, 2025at WSHLAD 6 − 5
Apr 8, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Apr 7, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at WSHLAD 2 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at WSHLAD 11 − 2
Apr 23, 2024at WSHLAD 4 − 1

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L