bayesRatings

Cardinals at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final STL 6 – WSH 9
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000012030690
WSH200001069120
Team box
STL·WSH
9
hits
12
2
home runs
3
7
walks
7
8
strikeouts
4
168
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ramon UriasSTL3-4213
Brady HouseWSH3-5112
James WoodWSH2-3213
Jordan WalkerSTL2-5111
CJ AbramsWSH1-4111
Thomas SaggeseSTL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre PallanteSTL5.03242
Matt Svanson (L)STL0.23301
Zack LittellWSH5.04136
Cionel Perez (W)WSH1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 3 · STL 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 53%, WSH 47% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
STL by 0.8
Expected score
STL 5.7 – 4.8 WSH
Expected total
10.5
CardinalsThe matchupNationals
−112Our fair odds+112
5.7Expected runs4.8
−0.05Power rating−0.25
4.4Runs / game6.1
5.1Allowed / game6.6
7.1Hits / game9.7
0.89Home runs / game1.22
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
5−4Season record3−6
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11253%−11653.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11247%−10350.7%———
SpreadSTL by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.8our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.5
Over10.5our total————
Under10.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Cardinals by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 16 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← STL wins byWSH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more44%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.562%
Total over 10.545%
Total over 12.531%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·WSH
Apr 5 at DET
last game
Apr 5 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
STL·WSH
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.4
runs / game
6.1
5.1
runs allowed / game
6.6
5−4
season record
3−6
4−2
home record
0−3
1−2
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.1
hits / game
9.7
0.89
home runs / game
1.22
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
6.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.56
errors / game
1.11

Rating Trend

STL · WSH · 12 days
St. Louis CardinalsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Jul 10, 2025at STLSTL 8 − 1
Jul 9, 2025at STLWSH 8 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 11, 2025at WSHSTL 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at WSHSTL 4 − 2
May 9, 2025at WSHSTL 10 − 0
Jul 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at STLWSH 14 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at STLWSH 10 − 8
Jul 8, 2024at WSHSTL 6 − 0

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W
Mar 30vs NYM2 − 4L
Mar 29vs TB7 − 11L
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Apr 5vs LAD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L