bayesRatings

Dodgers at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 12:35 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final LAD 8 – WSH 6
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0010020418110
WSH002400000670
Team box
LAD·WSH
11
hits
7
3
home runs
2
5
walks
5
10
strikeouts
8
151
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4112
James WoodWSH1-4213
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4111
Dalton RushingLAD1-3112
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-5112
Santiago EspinalLAD1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD5.05635
Jack Dreyer (W)LAD1.00011
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.00001
Foster GriffinWSH5.05136
Cionel Perez (L)WSH0.03420

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 5 · LAD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 61%, WSH 39% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
LAD by 2.1
Expected score
LAD 6.5 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
10.9
DodgersThe matchupNationals
−156Our fair odds+156
6.5Expected runs4.4
+0.29Power rating−0.25
5.8Runs / game6.1
3.5Allowed / game6.4
9.5Hits / game10.0
1.62Home runs / game1.12
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
6−2Season record3−5
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · WSH chance
Our model fair60.9%39.1%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15661%−17563.6%———
WSHWashington Nationals+15639%+14640.7%———
SpreadLAD by 2.1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.1 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 18 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byWSH wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more54%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.23 ERA, 8 Kstarted
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 1 start: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·WSH
Apr 4 at WSH
last game
Apr 4 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
LAD·WSH
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
5.8
runs / game
6.1
3.5
runs allowed / game
6.4
6−2
season record
3−5
4−2
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
3−3
W2
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
4−6
9.5
hits / game
10.0
1.62
home runs / game
1.12
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.12
errors / game
1.25

Rating Trend

LAD · WSH · 11 days
Los Angeles DodgersWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 4at WSHLAD 10 − 5
Apr 3at WSHLAD 13 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at LADLAD 13 − 7
Jun 21, 2025at LADWSH 7 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 9, 2025at WSHLAD 6 − 5
Apr 8, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 2
Apr 7, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 4
Apr 25, 2024at WSHLAD 2 − 1
Apr 24, 2024at WSHLAD 11 − 2

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 4vs LAD5 − 10L
Apr 3vs LAD6 − 13L
Apr 1at PHI5 − 6L
Mar 31at PHI2 − 3L
Mar 30at PHI13 − 2W
Mar 29at CHC6 − 3W
Mar 28at CHC2 − 10L
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W