bayesRatings

Brewers at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIL 0 – BOS 5
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000000040
BOS00300020570
Team box
MIL·BOS
4
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
8
7
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor StoryBOS1-3002
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4101
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4101
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-3100
Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS1-4100
Caleb DurbinBOS0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Drohan (L)MIL2.23342
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.13022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, BOS 46% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 4.9 – 4.1 BOS
Expected total
9.0
BrewersThe matchupRed Sox
−116Our fair odds+116
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.30Power rating+0.06
6.4Runs / game3.5
3.7Allowed / game5.0
8.9Hits / game7.5
0.91Home runs / game0.82
5.4Walks drawn / game3.3
8−3Season record3−8
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11654%+11945.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox+11646%−14258.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.8
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.8our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.8 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 17%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byBOS wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more43%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BOS
Apr 7 at BOS
last game
Apr 7 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
MIL·BOS
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
6.4
runs / game
3.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
8−3
season record
3−8
5−1
home record
2−3
3−2
away record
1−5
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
2−8
8.9
hits / game
7.5
0.91
home runs / game
0.82
5.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
10.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.09
errors / game
1.09

Rating Trend

MIL · BOS · 14 days
Milwaukee BrewersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Apr 7at BOSBOS 3 − 2
Apr 6at BOSMIL 8 − 6
May 28, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 5
May 27, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 26, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 2
May 26, 2024at BOSBOS 2 − 1
May 25, 2024at BOSMIL 6 − 3
May 24, 2024at BOSMIL 7 − 2
Apr 23, 2023at MILBOS 12 − 5
Apr 22, 2023at MILMIL 5 − 4

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 7at BOS2 − 3L
Apr 6at BOS8 − 6W
Apr 5at KC8 − 5W
Apr 4at KC2 − 8L
Apr 4at KC5 − 2W
Apr 1vs TB8 − 2W
Mar 31vs TB6 − 2W
Mar 30vs TB2 − 3L
Mar 29vs CHW9 − 7W
Mar 28vs CHW6 − 1W

BOS · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L
Mar 30at HOU1 − 8L
Mar 29at CIN2 − 3L
Mar 28at CIN5 − 6L