bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Thursday, Apr 9 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 1 – MIN 3
← MLB / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000100150
MIN00010002390
Team box
DET·MIN
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
9
strikeouts
9
148
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN3-4111
Brooks LeeMIN1-1002
Javier BaezDET2-4000
Gleyber TorresDET1-3001
Riley GreeneDET1-4000
Colt KeithDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack FlahertyDET5.25136
Will Vest (L)DET0.23211
Mick AbelMIN6.04036
Garrett Acton (W)MIN2.01102
Eric Orze (S)MIN1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 2 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.1
TigersThe matchupTwins
−104Our fair odds+104
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.11
4.4Runs / game4.8
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game7.2
0.58Home runs / game0.83
4.1Walks drawn / game4.7
4−8Season record6−6
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10451%−13757.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10449%+11446.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted
MINMick Abel SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 6.92 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Apr 8 at MIN
last game
Apr 8 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
DET·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.8
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
4−8
season record
6−6
2−1
home record
4−2
2−7
away record
2−4
L4
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.2
0.58
home runs / game
0.83
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.83
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 15 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Apr 8at MINMIN 8 − 6
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at DETMIN 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at DETDET 6 − 3

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L