bayesRatings

Rays at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 6:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final TB 7 – MIN 1
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0310200107101
MIN010000000131
Team box
TB·MIN
10
hits
3
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
5
strikeouts
12
146
pitches thrown
165
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB1-3002
Jonathan ArandaTB1-5002
Brooks LeeMIN1-3001
Cedric MullinsTB2-5200
Hunter FeducciaTB1-4001
Ben WilliamsonTB1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven Matz (W)TB6.02128
Mick Abel (L)MIN4.06433

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · TB 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, MIN 50% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.1
RaysThe matchupTwins
+101Our fair odds−101
4.7Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating−0.11
4.9Runs / game5.1
6.9Allowed / game4.6
9.7Hits / game7.0
0.86Home runs / game1.14
3.3Walks drawn / game4.9
2−5Season record3−4
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10150%−11653.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10150%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIN wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINMick Abel SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 9.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIN
Apr 3 at MIN
last game
Apr 3 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TB·MIN
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.9
runs / game
5.1
6.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
2−5
season record
3−4
0−0
home record
1−0
2−5
away record
2−4
L3
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
9.7
hits / game
7.0
0.86
home runs / game
1.14
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
10.3
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
1.57
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

TB · MIN · 10 days
Tampa Bay RaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 3at MINMIN 10 − 4
Jul 6, 2025at MINTB 7 − 5
Jul 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 4, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 0
May 27, 2025at TBMIN 4 − 2
May 26, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 5, 2024at TBMIN 4 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 3, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L