bayesRatings

Rays at Twins

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 4:05 PM CT · Target Field · Final TB 4 – MIN 10
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB200100010483
MIN000300701070
Team box
TB·MIN
8
hits
7
0
home runs
1
3
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
176
pitches thrown
165
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tristan GrayMIN1-2115
Josh BellMIN2-5202
Nick FortesTB1-3102
Ben WilliamsonTB2-4001
Royce LewisMIN0-2102
Trevor LarnachMIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe BoyleTB5.14239
Kevin Kelly (L)TB0.12521
Bailey OberMIN4.04324
Kody Funderburk (W)MIN0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +7
TB +7
123456789
largest lead: MIN 7 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.3 MIN
Expected total
9.0
RaysThe matchupTwins
−102Our fair odds+102
4.7Expected runs4.3
−0.02Power rating−0.14
5.0Runs / game4.3
6.3Allowed / game4.7
10.0Hits / game7.0
1.00Home runs / game1.17
3.3Walks drawn / game4.7
2−4Season record2−4
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10251%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10249%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIN wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBJoe Boyle SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIN
Apr 1 at MIL
last game
Apr 2 at KC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
TB·MIN
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
5.0
runs / game
4.3
6.3
runs allowed / game
4.7
2−4
season record
2−4
0−0
home record
0−0
2−4
away record
2−4
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
10.0
hits / game
7.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.17
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
6.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
1.33
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TB · MIN · 9 days
Tampa Bay RaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jul 6, 2025at MINTB 7 − 5
Jul 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 4, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 0
May 27, 2025at TBMIN 4 − 2
May 26, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 5, 2024at TBMIN 4 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4
Sep 3, 2024at TBTB 2 − 1
Sep 2, 2024at TBMIN 5 − 4

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L
Sep 25, 2025at TEX4 − 0W