bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 2 – MIN 4
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000000101291
MIN000040004100
Team box
DET·MIN
9
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
14
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kevin McGonigleDET2-5002
Josh BellMIN3-4001
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4102
Javier BaezDET2-3100
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-3100
Victor CaratiniMIN2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (L)DET4.28427
Taj Bradley (W)MIN6.161010
Justin Topa (S)MIN0.20010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
DET +4
123456789
largest lead: MIN 4 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupTwins
−109Our fair odds+109
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.13
4.5Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game6.5
0.70Home runs / game1.00
4.4Walks drawn / game4.7
4−6Season record4−6
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10952%−16862.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10948%+14041.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more32%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 22 Kstarted
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Apr 6 at MIN
last game
Apr 6 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
DET·MIN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.5
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
4−6
season record
4−6
2−1
home record
2−2
2−5
away record
2−4
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
6.5
0.70
home runs / game
1.00
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.7
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
10.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.90
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 13 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at DETMIN 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at DETDET 6 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at DETDET 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at DETDET 10 − 5

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L