bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 3 – MIN 7
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET000300000341
MIN003200027102
Team box
DET·MIN
4
hits
10
0
home runs
1
7
walks
7
11
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor CaratiniMIN2-4003
Luke KeaschallMIN1-3212
Zach McKinstryDET1-3002
Matt WallnerMIN2-5001
Colt KeithDET1-4101
Royce LewisMIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey Mize (L)DET4.17534
Joe Ryan (W)MIN5.03237
Cody Laweryson (S)MIN1.20002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
DET +4
123456789
largest lead: MIN 4 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 53%, MIN 47% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
DET by 0.8
Expected score
DET 4.9 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupTwins
−112Our fair odds+112
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.15
4.7Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.8
7.9Hits / game6.1
0.78Home runs / game1.00
4.1Walks drawn / game4.4
4−5Season record3−6
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−11253%+10149.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+11247%−12154.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.8
DETDetroit Tigers−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.8 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more43%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more33%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 16 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Apr 5 vs STL
last game
Apr 5 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DET·MIN
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.7
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
4−5
season record
3−6
2−1
home record
1−2
2−4
away record
2−4
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
6.1
0.78
home runs / game
1.00
4.1
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.1
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.89
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 12 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at DETMIN 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at DETDET 6 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at DETDET 3 − 0
Jun 28, 2025at DETDET 10 − 5
Jun 27, 2025at DETMIN 4 − 1

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L