bayesRatings

Rays at Twins

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final TB 4 – MIN 1
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TB0001000003480
MIN0100000000130
Team box
TB·MIN
8
hits
3
2
home runs
1
5
walks
2
5
strikeouts
7
144
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Richie PalaciosTB2-3112
Matt WallnerMIN2-4111
Junior CamineroTB1-4112
Austin MartinMIN1-3000
Yandy DiazTB1-4100
Nick FortesTB1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB6.01114
Bryan Baker (W)TB1.00002
Kevin Kelly (S)TB1.00001
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN6.25124
Justin Topa (L)MIN0.12210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
TB +3
12345678910
largest lead: MIN 1 · TB 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, MIN 49% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 4.3 MIN
Expected total
9.1
RaysThe matchupTwins
−103Our fair odds+103
4.8Expected runs4.3
−0.02Power rating−0.13
5.1Runs / game4.6
6.1Allowed / game4.9
9.8Hits / game6.5
0.75Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game4.8
3−5Season record3−5
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10351%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10349%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIN wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIN
Apr 4 at MIN
last game
Apr 4 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
TB·MIN
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
5.1
runs / game
4.6
6.1
runs allowed / game
4.9
3−5
season record
3−5
0−0
home record
1−1
3−5
away record
2−4
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
9.8
hits / game
6.5
0.75
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.5
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
1.50
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TB · MIN · 11 days
Tampa Bay RaysMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 4at MINTB 7 − 1
Apr 3at MINMIN 10 − 4
Jul 6, 2025at MINTB 7 − 5
Jul 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 4, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 0
May 27, 2025at TBMIN 4 − 2
May 26, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2
Sep 5, 2024at TBMIN 4 − 3
Sep 4, 2024at TBTB 9 − 4

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 4at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 3at MIN4 − 10L
Apr 1at MIL2 − 8L
Mar 31at MIL2 − 6L
Mar 30at MIL3 − 2W
Mar 29at STL11 − 7W
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W