bayesRatings

Tigers at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final DET 6 – MIN 8
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0000024006120
MIN600101008111
Team box
DET·MIN
12
hits
11
0
home runs
0
2
walks
6
6
strikeouts
4
139
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gleyber TorresDET2-5202
Dillon DinglerDET3-4001
Royce LewisMIN2-3002
Byron BuxtonMIN3-4300
Javier BaezDET2-4100
Riley GreeneDET1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber Valdez (L)DET5.010822
Bailey Ober (W)MIN5.25212
Kody Funderburk (S)MIN0.20010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +7
DET +7
123456789
largest lead: MIN 7 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupTwins
−106Our fair odds+106
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.03Power rating−0.12
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game4.4
7.6Hits / game6.8
0.64Home runs / game0.91
4.3Walks drawn / game4.5
4−7Season record5−6
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10652%−15460.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10648%+12444.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 17%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byMIN wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIN
Apr 7 at MIN
last game
Apr 7 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
DET·MIN
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
4−7
season record
5−6
2−1
home record
3−2
2−6
away record
2−4
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
6.8
0.64
home runs / game
0.91
4.3
walks drawn / game
4.5
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
10.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.91
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

DET · MIN · 14 days
Detroit TigersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Apr 7at MINMIN 4 − 2
Apr 6at MINMIN 7 − 3
Aug 17, 2025at MINMIN 8 − 1
Aug 16, 2025at MINDET 8 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at MINDET 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2025at MINDET 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at DETMIN 9 − 4
Aug 5, 2025at DETMIN 6 − 3
Aug 4, 2025at DETDET 6 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at DETDET 3 − 0

DET · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L
Apr 5vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 4vs STL11 − 6W
Apr 3vs STL4 − 0W
Apr 1at ARI0 − 1L
Mar 31at ARI5 − 7L
Mar 30at ARI6 − 9L
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W