bayesRatings

Red Sox at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final BOS 9 – STL 3
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS2104000029110
STL010001010371
Team box
BOS·STL
11
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
4
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS4-5113
Trevor StoryBOS4-5102
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4111
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4111
Jarren DuranBOS1-4203
Connor WongBOS1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brayan Bello (W)BOS6.26222
Andre Pallante (L)STL5.09612

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +6
BOS +6
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · BOS 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 50%, STL 50% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.9
Red SoxThe matchupCardinals
−102Our fair odds+102
4.8Expected runs4.1
+0.08Power rating−0.04
3.8Runs / game4.5
4.2Allowed / game5.1
7.4Hits / game7.4
0.64Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
5−9Season record8−6
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.5%49.5%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10250%−12154.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10250%−10350.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins bySTL wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 8.71 ERA, 7 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·STL
Apr 11 at STL
last game
Apr 11 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
BOS·STL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.8
runs / game
4.5
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.1
5−9
season record
8−6
3−3
home record
5−3
2−6
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
7.4
0.64
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.2
0.93
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

BOS · STL · 18 days
Boston Red SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Apr 11at STLBOS 7 − 1
Apr 10at STLSTL 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2025at BOSBOS 18 − 7
Apr 6, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Apr 4, 2025at BOSBOS 13 − 9
May 19, 2024at STLBOS 11 − 3
May 18, 2024at STLSTL 7 − 2
May 17, 2024at STLSTL 10 − 6
May 14, 2023at BOSSTL 9 − 1
May 13, 2023at BOSSTL 4 − 3

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L
Mar 31at HOU2 − 9L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 7at WSH7 − 6W
Apr 6at WSH6 − 9L
Apr 5at DET5 − 3W
Apr 4at DET6 − 11L
Apr 3at DET0 − 4L
Apr 1vs NYM2 − 1W
Mar 31vs NYM3 − 0W