bayesRatings

Tigers at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final DET 0 – BOS 1
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
DET0000000000041
BOS0000000001140
Team box
DET·BOS
4
hits
4
0
home runs
0
2
walks
3
6
strikeouts
9
141
pitches thrown
119
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masataka YoshidaBOS1-1001
Jahmai JonesDET2-4000
Connor WongBOS1-2000
Jarren DuranBOS1-4100
Caleb DurbinBOS1-3000
Javier BaezDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Casey MizeDET6.23017
Will Vest (L)DET1.11012
Ranger SuarezBOS8.02014
Garrett Whitlock (W)BOS1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
DET +3
12345678910
largest lead: BOS 1 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, BOS 53% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.4 – 4.3 DET
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupRed Sox
+111Our fair odds−111
4.3Expected runs4.4
+0.06Power rating+0.07
4.4Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game4.8
8.0Hits / game8.0
0.74Home runs / game0.67
3.7Walks drawn / game3.4
10−9Season record7−11
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BOS chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11147%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11153%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETCasey Mize SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BOS
Apr 16 vs KC
last game
Apr 15 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
DET·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.4
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
10−9
season record
7−11
8−1
home record
3−3
2−8
away record
4−8
W6
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.0
0.74
home runs / game
0.67
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.58
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

DET · BOS · 23 days
Detroit TigersBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 3−7
Sep 28, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Sep 27, 2025at BOSDET 2 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
May 14, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 13, 2025at DETDET 10 − 9
May 12, 2025at DETDET 14 − 2
Sep 1, 2024at DETDET 4 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 30, 2024at DETBOS 7 − 5
Jun 2, 2024at BOSDET 8 − 4

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W6
Apr 16vs KC10 − 9W
Apr 15vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 14vs KC2 − 1W
Apr 12vs MIA8 − 2W
Apr 11vs MIA6 − 1W
Apr 10vs MIA2 − 0W
Apr 9at MIN1 − 3L
Apr 8at MIN6 − 8L
Apr 7at MIN2 − 4L
Apr 6at MIN3 − 7L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 15at MIN9 − 5W
Apr 14at MIN0 − 6L
Apr 13at MIN6 − 13L
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L