bayesRatings

Red Sox at Twins

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final BOS 6 – MIN 13
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS0030012006101
MIN4700200013110
Team box
BOS·MIN
10
hits
11
1
home runs
4
4
walks
5
10
strikeouts
4
142
pitches thrown
151
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN3-4313
Victor CaratiniMIN1-2213
Jarren DuranBOS1-5112
Byron BuxtonMIN2-5211
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-4111
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Garrett Crochet (L)BOS1.291030
Bailey Ober (W)MIN6.07417

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +11
BOS +11
123456789
largest lead: MIN 11 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 52%, MIN 48% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
BOS by 0.8
Expected score
BOS 5.0 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.2
Red SoxThe matchupTwins
−107Our fair odds+107
5.0Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.07
4.1Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game7.2
0.67Home runs / game1.06
3.5Walks drawn / game4.4
6−9Season record9−7
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10752%−16161.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+10748%+13442.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.8
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byMIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more43%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more33%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSGarrett Crochet SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 22 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIN
Apr 12 at STL
last game
Apr 12 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
BOS·MIN
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
6−9
season record
9−7
3−3
home record
5−2
3−6
away record
4−5
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
7.2
0.67
home runs / game
1.06
3.5
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.87
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

BOS · MIN · 19 days
Boston Red SoxMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3
May 2, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 1
Sep 20, 2024at BOSMIN 4 − 2
May 5, 2024at MINBOS 9 − 2

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 12at STL9 − 3W
Apr 11at STL7 − 1W
Apr 10at STL2 − 3L
Apr 8vs MIL5 − 0W
Apr 7vs MIL3 − 2W
Apr 6vs MIL6 − 8L
Apr 5vs SD6 − 8L
Apr 4vs SD2 − 3L
Apr 3vs SD5 − 2W
Apr 1at HOU4 − 6L

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W