bayesRatings

Twins at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Apr 12 · 12:37 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIN 8 – TOR 2
← MLB / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN035000000880
TOR1000001002120
Team box
MIN·TOR
8
hits
12
2
home runs
0
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
9
185
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tristan GrayMIN1-3113
Daulton VarshoTOR3-5001
Kody ClemensMIN1-5111
Brooks LeeMIN1-4002
Ernie ClementTOR3-5200
Victor CaratiniMIN1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (W)MIN5.05147
Max Scherzer (L)TOR2.15823

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +7
MIN +7
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · MIN 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, TOR 57% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
TOR by 0.5
Expected score
TOR 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.6
TwinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+130Our fair odds−130
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.09Power rating+0.08
4.7Runs / game3.9
4.6Allowed / game5.3
7.2Hits / game8.0
1.00Home runs / game1.00
4.6Walks drawn / game3.5
8−7Season record6−8
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:37 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13043%+11446.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−13057%−13757.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.5
MINMinnesota Twins+0.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.5 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.08 ERA, 22 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TOR
Apr 11 at TOR
last game
Apr 11 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
MIN·TOR
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.7
runs / game
3.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.3
8−7
season record
6−8
5−2
home record
6−5
3−5
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.2
hits / game
8.0
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
6.8
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.1
0.53
errors / game
0.79

Rating Trend

MIN · TOR · 18 days
Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Apr 11at TORMIN 7 − 4
Apr 10at TORTOR 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at MINTOR 5 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at MINTOR 6 − 4
Sep 1, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Aug 31, 2024at MINTOR 15 − 0

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 11vs MIN4 − 7L
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W