bayesRatings

Blue Jays at White Sox

MLB · Sunday, Apr 5 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TOR 0 – CHW 3
← MLB / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000000060
CHW10110000380
Team box
TOR·CHW
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
6
142
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin HaysCHW1-4001
Lenyn SosaCHW1-3001
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-4100
Miguel VargasCHW1-4001
Ernie ClementTOR2-4000
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric Lauer (L)TOR2.03230
Davis Martin (W)CHW6.04026
Chris Murphy (S)CHW1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 59%, CHW 41% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
TOR by 1.4
Expected score
TOR 5.5 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
9.6
Blue JaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−141Our fair odds+141
5.5Expected runs4.1
+0.12Power rating−0.32
4.2Runs / game4.0
4.9Allowed / game7.4
8.5Hits / game6.9
1.25Home runs / game1.25
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
4−4Season record3−5
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHW chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−14159%−16862.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+14141%+14041.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.4
TORToronto Blue Jays−1.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.4 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCHW wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more49%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more38%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHW
Apr 4 at CHW
last game
Apr 4 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
TOR·CHW
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
4.2
runs / game
4.0
4.9
runs allowed / game
7.4
4−4
season record
3−5
4−2
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
1−5
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
6.9
1.25
home runs / game
1.25
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
11.4
12.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.75
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TOR · CHW · 11 days
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 5−5
Apr 4at CHWCHW 6 − 3
Apr 3at CHWCHW 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at CHWTOR 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at CHWTOR 8 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at TORCHW 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at TORCHW 7 − 1
May 29, 2024at CHWTOR 3 − 1
May 28, 2024at CHWTOR 7 − 2

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 4vs TOR6 − 3W
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L