bayesRatings

White Sox at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 12:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CHW 0 – MIA 10
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000000000031
MIA4220010110130
Team box
CHW·MIA
3
hits
13
0
home runs
2
0
walks
4
7
strikeouts
6
154
pitches thrown
93
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA3-4214
Otto LopezMIA2-4311
Javier SanojaMIA2-4002
Owen CaissieMIA1-5002
Connor NorbyMIA1-5101
Graham PauleyMIA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Smith (L)CHW3.08721
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA9.03007

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +10
CHW +10
123456789
largest lead: MIA 10 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 41%, MIA 59% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.7 – 4.2 CHW
Expected total
8.9
White SoxThe matchupMarlins
+142Our fair odds−142
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.34Power rating−0.07
4.2Runs / game4.6
8.4Allowed / game3.6
6.8Hits / game8.6
1.60Home runs / game0.80
3.6Walks drawn / game3.0
1−4Season record4−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+14241%+12444.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−14259%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 18%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWShane Smith SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIA
Mar 31 at MIA
last game
Mar 31 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
CHW·MIA
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.2
runs / game
4.6
8.4
runs allowed / game
3.6
1−4
season record
4−1
0−0
home record
4−1
1−4
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
6.8
hits / game
8.6
1.60
home runs / game
0.80
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.0
13.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.6
1.00
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

CHW · MIA · 7 days
Chicago White SoxMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Mar 31at MIAMIA 9 − 2
Mar 30at MIACHW 9 − 4
May 11, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at CHWMIA 3 − 1
May 9, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at MIACHW 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2023at CHWMIA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at CHWMIA 5 − 1

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 31vs CHW9 − 2W
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L