bayesRatings

White Sox at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CHW 2 – MIA 9
← MLB / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW002000000253
MIA00040023990
Team box
CHW·MIA
5
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
13
strikeouts
5
133
pitches thrown
152
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Griffin ConineMIA2-4212
Liam HicksMIA1-3202
Owen CaissieMIA1-2102
Andrew BenintendiCHW1-4001
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4001
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (L)CHW5.06314
Janson JunkMIA4.15215
Anthony Bender (W)MIA1.20011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +7
CHW +7
123456789
largest lead: MIA 7 · CHW 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 43%, MIA 57% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.5 – 4.3 CHW
Expected total
8.8
White SoxThe matchupMarlins
+135Our fair odds−135
4.3Expected runs4.5
−0.30Power rating−0.09
4.8Runs / game3.5
8.2Allowed / game4.0
7.2Hits / game8.5
2.00Home runs / game0.75
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
1−3Season record3−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIA chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi42.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+13543%+13442.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−13557%−15460.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 18%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more37%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 9 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIA
Mar 30 at MIA
last game
Mar 30 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CHW·MIA
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.8
runs / game
3.5
8.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
1−3
season record
3−1
0−0
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.2
hits / game
8.5
2.00
home runs / game
0.75
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
13.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.50
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

CHW · MIA · 6 days
Chicago White SoxMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 5−5
Mar 30at MIACHW 9 − 4
May 11, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at CHWMIA 3 − 1
May 9, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at MIACHW 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2023at CHWMIA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at CHWMIA 5 − 1
Jun 9, 2023at CHWCHW 2 − 1

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L
Sep 23, 2025at NYY2 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 30vs CHW4 − 9L
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L
Sep 23, 2025at PHI6 − 5W