bayesRatings

White Sox at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final CHW 9 – MIA 4
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW004401000990
MIA000210010480
Team box
CHW·MIA
9
hits
8
2
home runs
1
2
walks
4
10
strikeouts
12
156
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-4216
Liam HicksMIA2-4113
Austin HaysCHW1-5113
Jakob MarseeMIA2-5101
Everson PereiraCHW2-4200
Tristan PetersCHW2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis Martin (W)CHW5.05326
Jordan Hicks (S)CHW1.10011
Chris Paddack (L)MIA4.08806

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 41%, MIA 59% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.5 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
8.6
White SoxThe matchupMarlins
+142Our fair odds−142
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.34Power rating−0.07
3.3Runs / game3.3
9.7Allowed / game2.3
6.7Hits / game8.7
2.00Home runs / game0.67
4.7Walks drawn / game2.7
0−3Season record3−0
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+14241%+12444.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−14259%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 18%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIA
Mar 29 at MIL
last game
Mar 29 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CHW·MIA
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.3
runs / game
3.3
9.7
runs allowed / game
2.3
0−3
season record
3−0
0−0
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
0−0
L3
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
7−3
6.7
hits / game
8.7
2.00
home runs / game
0.67
4.7
walks drawn / game
2.7
14.3
batter strikeouts / game
6.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.67
errors / game
1.33

Rating Trend

CHW · MIA · 5 days
Chicago White SoxMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIA 5−4
May 11, 2025at CHWCHW 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at CHWMIA 3 − 1
May 9, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MIAMIA 7 − 4
Jul 6, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at MIACHW 3 − 2
Jun 11, 2023at CHWMIA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at CHWMIA 5 − 1
Jun 9, 2023at CHWCHW 2 − 1

CHW · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L
Sep 23, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 21, 2025vs SD2 − 3L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 29vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 28vs COL4 − 3W
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L
Sep 23, 2025at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at TEX4 − 2W