bayesRatings

Rockies at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 12:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final COL 2 – TOR 1
← MLB / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
COL0000000101260
TOR0010000000171
Team box
COL·TOR
6
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
17
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4001
Tyler FreemanCOL1-1001
Myles StrawTOR2-2100
Ernie ClementTOR2-4000
Davis SchneiderTOR1-3001
Brett SullivanCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle FreelandCOL5.05116
Brennan Bernardino (W)COL1.00000
Jimmy Herget (S)COL1.00000
Kevin GausmanTOR6.020010
Brendon Little (L)TOR1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
COL +3
12345678910
largest lead: TOR 1 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 27%, TOR 73% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
TOR by 2.5
Expected score
TOR 6.2 – 3.7 COL
Expected total
9.8
RockiesThe matchupBlue Jays
+273Our fair odds−273
3.7Expected runs6.2
−0.77Power rating+0.16
4.4Runs / game5.2
4.0Allowed / game5.2
8.6Hits / game9.6
1.00Home runs / game1.60
2.0Walks drawn / game4.6
1−4Season record4−1
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair26.8%73.2%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+27327%+22930.4%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−27373%−27673.4%———
SpreadTOR by 2.5
COLColorado Rockies+2.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 2.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 17 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 18 runs: <1%
← COL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more56%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more46%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·TOR
Mar 31 at TOR
last game
Mar 31 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
COL·TOR
−0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.4
runs / game
5.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.2
1−4
season record
4−1
0−0
home record
4−1
1−4
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
9.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.60
2.0
walks drawn / game
4.6
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
13.2
0.20
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

COL · TOR · 7 days
Colorado RockiesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Mar 31at TORTOR 5 − 1
Mar 30at TORCOL 14 − 5
Aug 6, 2025at COLTOR 20 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at COLTOR 10 − 4
Aug 4, 2025at COLTOR 15 − 1
Apr 14, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 0
Apr 13, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 12, 2024at TORCOL 12 − 4
Sep 3, 2023at COLTOR 7 − 5
Sep 2, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 7

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 31at TOR1 − 5L
Mar 30at TOR14 − 5W
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at SEA2 − 9L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at LAD5 − 6L