bayesRatings

Rockies at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final COL 14 – TOR 5
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL00110704114170
TOR001000031572
Team box
COL·TOR
17
hits
7
2
home runs
4
4
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
147
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ezequiel TovarCOL3-6203
Troy JohnstonCOL2-5112
Braxton FulfordCOL2-3212
TJ RumfieldCOL3-5102
Davis SchneiderTOR1-1112
George SpringerTOR1-5111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL4.22124
Chase Dollander (W)COL4.05425
Cody PonceTOR2.11113
Louis Varland (L)TOR1.12003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +12
COL +12
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · COL 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 25%, TOR 75% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
TOR by 2.7
Expected score
TOR 6.1 – 3.4 COL
Expected total
9.5
RockiesThe matchupBlue Jays
+298Our fair odds−298
3.4Expected runs6.1
−0.82Power rating+0.19
2.3Runs / game5.3
3.3Allowed / game3.7
6.3Hits / game9.0
0.67Home runs / game1.33
1.7Walks drawn / game5.0
0−3Season record3−0
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair25.1%74.9%
Kalshi29.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+29825%+24029.4%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−29875%−27673.4%———
SpreadTOR by 2.7
COLColorado Rockies+2.7our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 2.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 17 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 18 runs: <1%
← COL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more58%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more48%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TORCody Ponce SP · last 2 starts: 6.2 IP, 12.15 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·TOR
Mar 29 at MIA
last game
Mar 29 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
COL·TOR
−0.82
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
2.3
runs / game
5.3
3.3
runs allowed / game
3.7
0−3
season record
3−0
0−0
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
0−0
L3
streak
W3
1−9
last 10
6−4
6.3
hits / game
9.0
0.67
home runs / game
1.33
1.7
walks drawn / game
5.0
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
5.7
6.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
16.7
0.33
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

COL · TOR · 5 days
Colorado RockiesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TOR 7−2
Aug 6, 2025at COLTOR 20 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at COLTOR 10 − 4
Aug 4, 2025at COLTOR 15 − 1
Apr 14, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 0
Apr 13, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 12, 2024at TORCOL 12 − 4
Sep 3, 2023at COLTOR 7 − 5
Sep 2, 2023at COLCOL 8 − 7
Sep 1, 2023at COLTOR 13 − 9

COL · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Mar 29at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 28at MIA3 − 4L
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at SEA2 − 9L
Sep 23, 2025at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs LAA3 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at LAD5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 24, 2025vs LAD11 − 4W