bayesRatings

Blue Jays at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Apr 3 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TOR 4 – CHW 5
← MLB / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TOR0100000201472
CHW10200000025111
Team box
TOR·CHW
7
hits
11
1
home runs
0
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
12
172
pitches thrown
141
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andres GimenezTOR1-4112
Austin HaysCHW1-5002
Tristan PetersCHW2-5001
Edgar QueroCHW2-4000
Alejandro KirkTOR1-4001
Derek HillCHW1-1100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan CeaseTOR4.15236
Jeff Hoffman (L)TOR0.22001
Grant TaylorCHW1.00001
Seranthony Dominguez (W)CHW1.10002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
TOR +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHW 2 · TOR 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 60%, CHW 40% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
TOR by 1.6
Expected score
TOR 5.7 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
9.8
Blue JaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−151Our fair odds+151
5.7Expected runs4.1
+0.14Power rating−0.37
4.5Runs / game3.5
4.7Allowed / game8.7
9.2Hits / game6.2
1.33Home runs / game1.33
4.0Walks drawn / game3.0
4−2Season record1−5
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHW chance
Our model fair60.2%39.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−15160%————
CHWChicago White Sox+15140%————
SpreadTOR by 1.6
TORToronto Blue Jays−1.6our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.6 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCHW wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more50%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 25 Kstarted
CHWGrant Taylor RP · last 2 starts: 2.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHW
Apr 1 vs COL
last game
Apr 1 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
TOR·CHW
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
4.5
runs / game
3.5
4.7
runs allowed / game
8.7
4−2
season record
1−5
4−2
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−5
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.2
hits / game
6.2
1.33
home runs / game
1.33
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
12.2
13.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.50
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TOR · CHW · 9 days
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 3−7
Jul 9, 2025at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at CHWTOR 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at CHWTOR 8 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at TORCHW 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at TORCHW 7 − 1
May 29, 2024at CHWTOR 3 − 1
May 28, 2024at CHWTOR 7 − 2
May 27, 2024at CHWTOR 5 − 1
May 22, 2024at TORTOR 9 − 2

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L