bayesRatings

Blue Jays at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, Apr 4 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final TOR 3 – CHW 6
← MLB / Apr 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000002100361
CHW10000302671
Team box
TOR·CHW
6
hits
7
1
home runs
2
5
walks
4
2
strikeouts
6
144
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3113
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-4112
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-3111
Miguel VargasCHW2-2200
Austin HaysCHW1-3100
Lenyn SosaCHW1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mason FluhartyTOR1.02110
Brendon Little (L)TOR0.13301
Grant TaylorCHW1.00001
Chris Murphy (W)CHW1.02100
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · TOR 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 59%, CHW 41% · Updated Apr 4

Expected margin
TOR by 1.5
Expected score
TOR 5.6 – 4.1 CHW
Expected total
9.7
Blue JaysThe matchupWhite Sox
−146Our fair odds+146
5.6Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.34
4.4Runs / game3.7
4.7Allowed / game8.0
8.9Hits / game6.9
1.29Home runs / game1.14
3.6Walks drawn / game3.1
4−3Season record2−5
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHW chance
Our model fair59.3%40.7%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−14659%−14859.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+14641%+12444.7%———
SpreadTOR by 1.5
TORToronto Blue Jays−1.5our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.5 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 16 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCHW wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more49%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORMason Fluharty RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
CHWGrant Taylor RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHW
Apr 3 at CHW
last game
Apr 3 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TOR·CHW
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
4.4
runs / game
3.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
8.0
4−3
season record
2−5
4−2
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−5
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.9
hits / game
6.9
1.29
home runs / game
1.14
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
12.1
13.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.71
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TOR · CHW · 10 days
Toronto Blue JaysChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Apr 3at CHWCHW 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at CHWTOR 6 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at CHWTOR 8 − 4
Jun 22, 2025at TORCHW 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at TORTOR 7 − 1
Jun 20, 2025at TORCHW 7 − 1
May 29, 2024at CHWTOR 3 − 1
May 28, 2024at CHWTOR 7 − 2
May 27, 2024at CHWTOR 5 − 1

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 3vs TOR5 − 4W
Apr 1at MIA0 − 10L
Mar 31at MIA2 − 9L
Mar 30at MIA9 − 4W
Mar 29at MIL7 − 9L
Mar 28at MIL1 − 6L
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W