bayesRatings

Dodgers at Blue Jays

MLB · Monday, Apr 6 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAD 14 – TOR 2
← MLB / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD20211341014170
TOR100000001252
Team box
LAD·TOR
17
hits
5
5
home runs
0
5
walks
5
8
strikeouts
6
134
pitches thrown
201
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dalton RushingLAD4-4322
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-5214
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4213
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-6211
Andy PagesLAD2-4002
Max MuncyLAD2-6100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD5.02142
Max Scherzer (L)TOR2.02212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +13
LAD +13
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · LAD 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, TOR 47% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 4.6 TOR
Expected total
9.8
DodgersThe matchupBlue Jays
−111Our fair odds+111
5.2Expected runs4.6
+0.29Power rating+0.10
6.0Runs / game3.8
3.8Allowed / game4.7
9.7Hits / game8.2
1.78Home runs / game1.11
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
7−2Season record4−5
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · TOR chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11153%−12655.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+11147%+10548.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byTOR wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more32%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 12.12 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·TOR
Apr 5 at WSH
last game
Apr 5 at CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
LAD·TOR
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
6.0
runs / game
3.8
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
7−2
season record
4−5
4−2
home record
4−2
3−0
away record
0−3
W3
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
4−6
9.7
hits / game
8.2
1.78
home runs / game
1.11
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.9
0.11
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

LAD · TOR · 12 days
Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Nov 1, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 4post
Oct 31, 2025at TORLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 29, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 1post
Oct 28, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 27, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5post
Oct 25, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 24, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 4post
Aug 10, 2025at LADTOR 5 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L