bayesRatings

Dodgers at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAD 3 – TOR 4
← MLB / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000101100362
TOR00100021481
Team box
LAD·TOR
6
hits
8
0
home runs
0
8
walks
4
13
strikeouts
3
140
pitches thrown
164
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-5001
Will SmithLAD2-3201
George SpringerTOR2-5001
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-3000
Jesus SanchezTOR1-4001
Daulton VarshoTOR1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shohei OhtaniLAD6.04012
Ben Casparius (L)LAD1.01110
Dylan CeaseTOR5.04148
Tyler Rogers (W)TOR1.21012
Jeff Hoffman (S)TOR1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · LAD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 55%, TOR 45% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
9.9
DodgersThe matchupBlue Jays
−120Our fair odds+120
5.5Expected runs4.5
+0.34Power rating+0.07
6.5Runs / game3.4
3.4Allowed / game5.5
10.2Hits / game7.7
1.91Home runs / game0.91
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
9−2Season record4−7
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · TOR chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12055%−15460.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+12045%+12444.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byTOR wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.02 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·TOR
Apr 7 at TOR
last game
Apr 7 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
LAD·TOR
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
6.5
runs / game
3.4
3.4
runs allowed / game
5.5
9−2
season record
4−7
4−2
home record
4−4
5−0
away record
0−3
W5
streak
L6
8−2
last 10
3−7
10.2
hits / game
7.7
1.91
home runs / game
0.91
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.5
0.09
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

LAD · TOR · 14 days
Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Apr 7at TORLAD 4 − 1
Apr 6at TORLAD 14 − 2
Nov 1, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 4post
Oct 31, 2025at TORLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 29, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 1post
Oct 28, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 27, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5post
Oct 25, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 24, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 4post
Aug 10, 2025at LADTOR 5 − 4

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W