bayesRatings

Dodgers at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final LAD 4 – TOR 1
← MLB / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD002010001480
TOR000001000162
Team box
LAD·TOR
8
hits
6
0
home runs
0
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alex FreelandLAD3-3201
Kyle TuckerLAD1-5001
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-3001
George SpringerTOR1-4001
Andres GimenezTOR2-4100
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD6.05116
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.01013
Kevin Gausman (L)TOR5.15225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · LAD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, TOR 46% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 5.5 – 4.5 TOR
Expected total
10.0
DodgersThe matchupBlue Jays
−117Our fair odds+117
5.5Expected runs4.5
+0.33Power rating+0.08
6.8Runs / game3.6
3.6Allowed / game5.6
10.4Hits / game7.9
2.10Home runs / game1.00
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
8−2Season record4−6
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · TOR chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi60.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11754%−15460.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays+11746%+12444.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byTOR wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 29 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·TOR
Apr 6 at TOR
last game
Apr 6 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
LAD·TOR
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
6.8
runs / game
3.6
3.6
runs allowed / game
5.6
8−2
season record
4−6
4−2
home record
4−3
4−0
away record
0−3
W4
streak
L5
8−2
last 10
4−6
10.4
hits / game
7.9
2.10
home runs / game
1.00
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.5
0.10
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

LAD · TOR · 13 days
Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Apr 6at TORLAD 14 − 2
Nov 1, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 4post
Oct 31, 2025at TORLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 29, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 1post
Oct 28, 2025at LADTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 27, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5post
Oct 25, 2025at TORLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 24, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 4post
Aug 10, 2025at LADTOR 5 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at LADLAD 9 − 1

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L
Mar 31vs CLE4 − 1W
Mar 30vs CLE2 − 4L
Mar 28vs ARI3 − 2W
Mar 27vs ARI5 − 4W
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W
Mar 28vs ATH8 − 7W
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W