bayesRatings

Twins at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIN 4 – TOR 10
← MLB / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN300100000471
TOR0005121110140
Team box
MIN·TOR
7
hits
14
2
home runs
2
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
4
146
pitches thrown
165
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN3-3113
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR2-4212
Daulton VarshoTOR2-5111
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-5201
Davis SchneiderTOR2-3202
Brooks LeeMIN1-3111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN4.06512
Patrick CorbinTOR4.06413
Joe Mantiply (W)TOR1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: TOR 6 · MIN 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, TOR 57% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
TOR by 0.6
Expected score
TOR 5.0 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+130Our fair odds−130
4.4Expected runs5.0
−0.10Power rating+0.07
4.6Runs / game3.4
4.2Allowed / game5.2
7.3Hits / game7.8
0.85Home runs / game0.83
4.7Walks drawn / game3.8
7−6Season record5−7
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13043%+12943.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−13057%−15460.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more41%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TOR
Apr 9 vs DET
last game
Apr 8 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
MIN·TOR
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
4.6
runs / game
3.4
4.2
runs allowed / game
5.2
7−6
season record
5−7
5−2
home record
5−4
2−4
away record
0−3
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.3
hits / game
7.8
0.85
home runs / game
0.83
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.6
0.54
errors / game
0.92

Rating Trend

MIN · TOR · 16 days
Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at MINTOR 5 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at MINTOR 6 − 4
Sep 1, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Aug 31, 2024at MINTOR 15 − 0
Aug 30, 2024at MINMIN 2 − 0
May 12, 2024at TORMIN 5 − 1

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L
Mar 30at KC1 − 3L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L
Mar 29vs ATH5 − 2W