bayesRatings

Twins at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Apr 11 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final MIN 7 – TOR 4
← MLB / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN007000000760
TOR200000002450
Team box
MIN·TOR
6
hits
5
2
home runs
2
6
walks
2
5
strikeouts
5
130
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor LarnachMIN1-3113
Brooks LeeMIN2-4111
Jesus SanchezTOR1-4112
Daulton VarshoTOR1-4112
Josh BellMIN1-4102
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (W)MIN7.02215
Eric Lauer (L)TOR5.15753

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +5
MIN +5
123456789
largest lead: TOR 2 · MIN 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 43%, TOR 57% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
TOR by 0.6
Expected score
TOR 5.0 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.5
TwinsThe matchupBlue Jays
+133Our fair odds−133
4.5Expected runs5.0
−0.11Power rating+0.08
4.6Runs / game3.9
4.6Allowed / game5.2
7.3Hits / game8.2
0.93Home runs / game0.92
4.5Walks drawn / game3.6
7−7Season record6−7
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+13343%+10149.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−13357%−12655.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more41%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TOREric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TOR
Apr 10 at TOR
last game
Apr 10 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
MIN·TOR
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.6
runs / game
3.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.2
7−7
season record
6−7
5−2
home record
6−4
2−5
away record
0−3
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.3
hits / game
8.2
0.93
home runs / game
0.92
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
6.9
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.6
0.57
errors / game
0.85

Rating Trend

MIN · TOR · 17 days
Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Apr 10at TORTOR 10 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at TORTOR 9 − 8
Aug 26, 2025at TORMIN 7 − 5
Aug 25, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at MINTOR 5 − 4
Jun 6, 2025at MINTOR 6 − 4
Sep 1, 2024at MINMIN 4 − 3
Aug 31, 2024at MINTOR 15 − 0
Aug 30, 2024at MINMIN 2 − 0

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W
Apr 8vs DET8 − 6W
Apr 7vs DET4 − 2W
Apr 6vs DET7 − 3W
Apr 5vs TB1 − 4L
Apr 4vs TB1 − 7L
Apr 3vs TB10 − 4W
Apr 2at KC5 − 1W
Apr 1at KC9 − 13L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 10vs MIN10 − 4W
Apr 8vs LAD4 − 3W
Apr 7vs LAD1 − 4L
Apr 6vs LAD2 − 14L
Apr 5at CHW0 − 3L
Apr 4at CHW3 − 6L
Apr 3at CHW4 − 5L
Apr 1vs COL1 − 2L
Mar 31vs COL5 − 1W
Mar 30vs COL5 − 14L